منابع مشابه
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R
Abstract This article describes two R packages for probabilistic weather forecasting, ensembleBMA, which offers ensemble postprocessing via Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and ProbForecastGOP, which implements the geostatistical output perturbation (GOP) method. BMA forecasting models use mixture distributions, in which each component corresponds to an ensemble member, and the form of the compo...
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Road maintenance is one of the main problems Departments of Transportation face during winter time. Anti-icing, i.e. applying chemicals to the road to prevent ice formation, is often used to keep the roads free of ice. Given the preventive nature of anti-icing, accurate predictions of road ice are needed. Currently, anti-icing decisions are usually based on deterministic weather forecasts. Howe...
متن کاملAlbero: A Visual Analytics Approach for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Probabilistic weather forecasts are amongst the most popular ways to quantify numerical forecast uncertainties. The analog regression method can quantify uncertainties and express them as probabilities. The method comprises the analysis of errors from a large database of past forecasts generated with a specific numerical model and observational data. Current visualization tools based on this me...
متن کاملCalibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation
Probabilistic weather forecasting consists of finding a joint probability distribution for future weather quantities or events. It is typically done by using a numerical weather prediction model, perturbing the inputs to the model in various ways, often depending on data assimilation, and running the model for each perturbed set of inputs. The result is then viewed as an ensemble of forecasts, ...
متن کاملVisualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs
Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembl...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The R Journal
سال: 2011
ISSN: 2073-4859
DOI: 10.32614/rj-2011-009